Description: Article discussing two sessions on the topic of predictive modeling (PM) at SOA meetings.

Description: This hands–on, educational workshop will show you how to calculate dollar predictions, recalibrate risk weights and calculate various error metrics using sample members and corresponding risk adjustment output and actual claims.

Description: Using data from the Health & Retirement Study [HRS], a two-part medical claim prediction model is estimated for a cohort of survey respondents approaching Medicare-eligibility age. A High Deductible Health Plan [HDHP] with a companion Health Savings Account [HSA] is applied to simulated claims streams to model the build-up of HSA assets over the near-retirement years. Results show that the HSA is a grossly inadequate savings vehicle to provide for retiree medical care expenses at age 65. Moreover, HSA adequacy worsens exponentially with diminishing health status. Based on this simulation, it is apparent that Baby Boomers cannot adequately provide for the costs of medical care in retirement using HSAs exclusively.

Description: Vincent Kane recaps the “Statistics for Reading the Health Services and Policy Literature” session at the SOA ’10 Health Meeting.

Description: This article previews the session on Predictive Modeling at the 2009 Spring meeting that is co-sponsored by the Education & Research Section and Health Section of the SOA.