Description: A description of Data Science best practice tools and how they can apply to general actuarial work.

Description: A significant fraction of insurance risk is characterized by the tail of the claims distribution, where we have much less data to model probabilities accurately. Ignoring the tails can lead to underpricing of tail risk and mispricing. Estimation of the tails can be complex due to a bias-variance tradeoff--the further out we go into the tail the more accurately we can model the extreme tail (lower bias) but the less data we have (increased variance). The statistical tools of Extreme Value Theory can be leveraged to more accurately estimate both the incidence and the severity of extreme events given that they occur. using the Generalized Pareto Distribution.

Description: "A crucial importance in forecasting is to be able to distinguish cases when temporary slowdowns in health care utilization are followed by a “rebound” period of higher utilization. Come explore an analysis of a new mathematical model describing the return-of-care process. By means of simulation and case studies using the R programming language, the relationship between the visibility of these effects and the endogenous variance of the utilization time series is explored. After attending this session, you will be able to: Describe the parameters and mathematical form of the model Apply the model to real-world utilization data"

Description: This session will discuss essential theories and practical applications of deep learning for actuaries. Participants will gain insights on leveraging these cutting-edge techniques to enhance actuarial models and drive predictive accuracy.

Description: In this video, Chris Smith ASA MAAA, a health actuarial consultant and data science enthusiast, introduces the basics of machine learning and its applications in actuarial science. He covers various techniques, such as unsupervised, supervised, and reinforcement learning, as well as neural networks and gradient boosting. He also discusses the potential risks and ethical considerations of using these advanced technologies in the actuarial field. Contributors: Chris Smith, ASA, MAAA, Jason Reed, FSA, MAAA, Mitchell Momanyi FSA MAAA, Jessica Calafell, FSA, MAAA; Jon Forster ASA, MAAA

Description: This webcast will walk through several statistical methods for imputing race and ethnicity from U.S. datasets, highlighting their strengths and weaknesses, talking about how to use them and evaluating their accuracy, and telling you where you can get code packages as well as a free dataset to try the methods out.

Description: Artificial intelligence (AI) models have become increasingly popular in various industries, including finance. Such models can help lenders assess the risk of loan applicants, identify potential defaults and make better decisions about granting credit. However, the complexity of many machine-learning and, particularly, deep-learning models makes it difficult to understand how they arrive at their decisions. This lack of interpretability can be a significant problem in the legal and ethical realms, as it hinders transparency and accountability. Join us to learn interpretability techniques that are essential to address the challenges of using complex AI models in credit risk modeling. These techniques aim to provide a better understanding of how an AI model arrived at a particular decision or prediction. Techniques include surrogate models, which aim to provide a simpler model that approximates the behavior of the original model, and decision trees, which show the decision-making process in a more transparent way. However, applying interpretability techniques to AI models can be a challenging task. For example, some techniques can reduce the performance of the model, which can be unacceptable in applications where high accuracy is critical. Additionally, some techniques may only be effective for certain types of models or datasets, which limits their applicability. Despite these challenges, interpretability techniques are becoming increasingly important in the field of credit risk modeling. Financial regulators have recognized the importance of interpretability, and are starting to require financial institutions to use models that can be explained and validated. In addition, interpretability techniques can be used to improve the performance of credit risk models. By understanding how a model makes decisions, it is possible to identify areas where the model can be improved or where additional data may be needed.

Description: Expect to learn how recent advances in AI and Generative text technology can help unlock data from medical records to solve many key underwriting and actuarial challenges. Specific topics include the following: - What is NLP/AI/machine learning and how is it currently being used in underwriting? - What technological advancements have Insure Techs made in the use of AI and GPT, and how are carriers/reinsurers utilizing these enhancements? - How can you avoid some of the challenges with GPT such as Hallucinations and 'black box' outputs? - How can extraction of data from medical records assist actuaries with various pricing and analysis challenges? - What legal/compliance challenges should users be aware of and how to manage those risks?

Description: This is a list of links to research papers on predictive modeling.

Description: This report proposes a methodology to isolate crop yield improvement due to technological change and favorable and unfavorable weather.