Description: The last 20 years of global interest rate experience has low interest rates for long periods of time ('low for long'), negative interest rates, strange yield curve shapes, and now the most rapid increase in interest rates in our history. What is it we should be focused on as risk managers? Low for long, high rates due to prolonged inflation, or some blend of the two? The session will discuss our interest rate experience and the factors that appear to be dominant for the next decade. The session will address how one establishes a set of stylized facts to guide the development of a suitable interest rate model and how calibration targets can be determined. Discussion will then move to the suitability of existing interest rate models for capturing the real-world risks that actuaries and other finance professionals are concerned with. Are there interest rate models that are fit for purpose given the past 20 years of experience? A selection of candidate models will be discussed and illustrated.

Description: The Child Tax Credit and Social Security have demonstrated how simple rules based cash transfer programs can significantly lower poverty. Discover information from a paper that describes how the expansion of Social Security can more effectively and efficiently reduce poverty than the current alphabet of anti-poverty programs.

Description: Risk management techniques do not include system science. System science requires that the uncertainty of the world is incorporated into the results. The articles explains the difference between risk and uncertainty. Learn how risk practices create an overoptimistic view of future outcomes.

Description: A three-minute neuroscience-based image exercise is able to accurately unlock the emotional state of individual employees, permitting prediction of a host of specific needs. Actuaries can use this quantitative information at scale to target resources, benefits, and supports to increase the objective wellness and subjective well-being of workforces.

Description: This is an article about the lack of savings by the baby boomers and how it will affect retirement and the ramifications for Social Security. The author believes that baby boomers will choose to continue to work and alleviate some of the burden on social security.

Description: This is the first of a two-part article introducing and elaborating an “Adaptor” strategy for ERM. Such a strategy is intended to fulfil two purposes: first, switching among four styles of risk-coping strategies in order to track qualitative changes in a business’s risk environment; and, second, to support the business in navigating with resilience through all the seasons of a business-economic cycle, i.e., of boom, bust, moderate, uncertain. This latter requires careful study of the nature of resilience, the familiar idea of bounce back, and the less familiar idea of bounce forward. Part I of our article is underpinned therefore by a supplementary document (available from https://riskviews.wordpress.com/adaptor-exceptionalism/), which addresses the issue of structural change in a business or economy. It draws heavily on ideas taken from the discipline of control engineering, as well as some from ecology, social anthropology, and economics. The entire two-part article is thus an exercise in cross-disciplinary Systems Thinking.

Description: This article is a summary of the SOA Research Institute report published in April 2023 on Megatrends Impacting the Future of Retirement Plans.

Description: Three consultants offer their views on a pandemic and post-pandemic economic future that awaits Mexico. COVID-19 deepened the contraction of the Mexican economy. As manufacturing and consumption bounce back, sustaineddemand for services can help recovery. But a policy push is needed. The global pandemic came at a time when the Mexican economy had contracted for five straight quarters due to avariety of factors such as deceleration in investment and private consumption and uncertainty around the free tradeagreement with the United States and Canada. The COVID-19 crisis accelerated this trend, resulting in the largest contraction since the Great Depression of 1929.