Description: Abstract: A model for analyzing the probability and severity of default of sovereign entities and banks. The methodology analyzes the risks inherent in the investment of debt of sovereign governments and large financial institutions side-by-side, taking into consideration macroeconomic interactions among the sovereign fiscal and monetary authorities, the financial institutions, and the real economy. The signature aspect of the methodology is that it adapts a Merton-style default model to use explicit measures of sovereign assets and asset volatility.

Description: In this session, senior pension and insurance investment professionals will share their thoughts on current investment topics. Attendees will hear about leading edge investment ideas and practices from industry leaders.

Description: The impact of bond default risk on retirement benefit obligations describes how the probability default on a bond is similar to the probability of death for an annuitant. Bonds are used to cash flow match retirement obligations cash flows to funding from bond. Just as the probability of non-payment happens on the liability side, we can do the same with selected bonds. The end result may be an adjustment to the discount rates used.

Description: Exam FM/2 sample questions for Derivatives Markets textbook.

Description: Falling equity markets and interest rates have devastated pension plans worldwide during the past several years. The Standard & Poor’s 500 companies enjoyed a collective pension surplus of $252 billion in 1999. Even after the 2003 market rally, they face a deficit of $179 billion in 2003 Bianco 2003. These events have spotlighted the weakness of current funding and investment practices for corporate defined benefit pension plans. This article presents a case for securing all accrued benefits through “Full Funding.”

Description: Suspension of 30-year Treasury auctions will have minimal impact on bond market structure in the near term, but over the mid- to long-term, consequences could be profound. This article discusses that impact the suspension of the 30-year treasury will have.

Description: Discussion of significant anomalies in option pricing due to the independent identically distributed assumption of the Black Scholes formula.

Description: This abstract describes a paper that improves upon current multivariate statistical models for predicting the pre-payment rate of reverse mortgages, which are heavily data-driven. The prosposed model extends a semi-Markovian joint-life mortality model to incorporate three main termination modes of reverse mortgages: death, long-term care LTC entry, and non-health related termination.

Description: This article presents a case study that examines the implication of using real-world interest rate scenario generators with a block of fixed deferred annuities. We contrast cash flow testing results based on New York 7 deterministic scenarios to stochastic scenarios generated with the Academy Interest Rate Generator , as well as an alternative economic scenario generator designed explicitly to capture the risk of a persistently low interest rate environment and the transition to a rising interest rate environment.