Description: Appendix F is round 1 future developments from the Delphi report. Please see the SOA website Research section for the full Delphi Study of Economic Variables Report along with all of the appendices.

Description: The author explains how he used judgmental forecasting techniques to develop a dynamic lapse assumption. He defines the techniques and provides readers with a step-by-step process.

Description: The main focus of this article revolves around pension plans and their funding levels.

Description: Description of the vast variety of predictive analytics topics covered by the Forecasting & Futurism section and introduction to the July 2015 issue of the newsletter.

Description: This article discusses challenges that short-term predictions have on actuaries' reputations, both as individuals and as a profession, and discusses strategies to improve our professionalism and better manage this risk.

Description: As the portion of inforce business valued under PBR grows, it becomes increasingly important to not only calculate reserves for point-in-time valuation but to also project reserves. This is especially critical for actuarial functions such as pricing, business strategy/forecasting, and asset adequacy testing. In this session, we will review PBR projection techniques based on work completed by the American Academy of Actuaries when developing the PBA Projection Practice Note. In addition, this session will examine specific challenges that can arise when actuaries use models to project reserves at future dates. Topics covered include mortality improvement, credibility, scenario generation, starting asset projections, and various other technical issues related to nested modeling requiring both inner and outer loop projections.

Description: Appendix B is round 2 questionnaire on the study of selected economic variables using the Delphi method from the Delphi Report. See the SOA website Research for the complete report of the Delphi Study of Economic Variables Report which includes all the appendices.

Description: Provides details of the 2nd forecasting competition for the best model that predicts the Civilian Unemployment Rate 'UNRATE', measured on a monthly basis, from March-end 2012 through September-end 2012.

Description: This article is about research studies that use the Delphi technique. It describes what a Delphi study is and gives a thumbnail sketch of two Delphi studies the Society of Actuaries has sponsored in the past 10 years, as well as a recently initiated Delphi study.

Description: December 2016 edition of Predictive Analytics & Futurism