Description: How well can we predict ACA HHS Risk Adjustment Data Validation (HRADV) results? Put another way, how susceptible is the current HRADV process to small sample volatility? What potential remedies are there to the current model's shortcomings? Every plan, regardless of how many members they have above the 1000 minimum, count equally if they qualify for an HRADV with how the result is interpreted, and the subsequent HRADV risk transfer ($330M in 2023).

Description: Similar to how states had made adjustments to their capitation rates to reflect acuity adjustments caused by the onset of the pandemic, states will need to modify the rates to reflect the unwinding since utilization patterns and average acuity per enrolled member will change. When the continuous coverage requirements set forth by the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency (PHE) ended, Medicaid-managed care programs across the country adopted various approaches to phasing out maintenance of effort (MOE) as a result of changes to the PHE-era continuous eligibility requirements. Phasing out the MOE requirement will ultimately result in members who no longer meet eligibility requirements losing their Medicaid coverage. Further, states are facing a wide variety of circumstances and are implementing diverse approaches to the MOE phase-out. This topic will be of significant interest to all actuaries and stakeholders of the capitation rate development process for Medicaid-managed care programs. Join us as we discuss the operationalization of the PHE unwind while referencing the SOA's research project which models the effects of the unwinding on Medicaid eligibility and population costs. You will learn about the various approaches that different states have adopted to manage the unwinding process, which will be instrumental for accurately pricing managed care rates.

Description: One of the most effective ways to convey quantitative results is via data visualization. However, many times actuaries have been ineffective in doing this. In this session, you will see a demonstration of certain dataviz choices that make communicating results more effective in terms of graph type choice, graph element styles, colors and more. All examples will be in Excel-and doesn't require Visual Basic for Applications (VBA)! Nothing too fancy! I want to distribute working files to attendees before the session so they can follow along with how to build the graphs, make changes, etc. Graph choices will include line graph, tile grid map and jitter graph.

Description: This tool created graphs of Google's mobility Data. This version of the tool contains state-level U.S. data through July 31, 2020

Description: This paper outlines a statistical modeling framework for fitting mortality laws to mortality experience data. The process can be used as an alternative to traditional graduation techniques used in mortality table development.

Description: Focusing on the topic of Principle Based Reserves (PBR), the SOA offers on-demand education. The PBR series consists of ten micro-lessons providing foundational education on PBR and requirements of VM-20.

Description: The American Academy of Actuaries and the Society of Actuaries have joined resources to maintain this Economic Scenario Generators Excel Workbook tool for use in regulatory reserve and capital calculations. Please see the SOA website research pages for further information on this tool and how to use it.

Description: This article proposes a framework for estimating mortality improvement models and analyzing the parameter uncertainty in such models.

Description: We provide a possible solution to deal with the parameter estimation of mortality models when the population size is small, based on graduation methods.

Description: The purpose of this paper is to explore a methodology for choosing among techniques for managing contribution volatility in defined- benefit pension plans. A frequently used – and as often criticized – method for managing contribution volatility is to base actuarial cost on smoothed assets. Our goal in this paper is to develop a methodology for measuring and evaluating the quantitative impact of competing asset smoothing policies. We proceed by investigating a series of basic pension metrics, evaluating the characteristics of each using a simulated pension plan. We then use normalized and weighted combinations of these metrics to determine an optimal smoothing policy.