Description: This article provides an overview of the Own Risk and Solvency Assessment (ORSA) model act, and of enterprise risk management (ERM). Compared to other actuarial disciplines, health actuaries have not historically focused as much on ERM. But health coverages do have risks that can threaten an insurer's solvency, and ORSA (now in force in most states) will force health insurers to beef up their ERM capabilities.

Description: This paper considers the question of whether the growth in the size of financial statements witnessed over the last several years has yielded an increase in the quality of disclosure around issues of financial risk and to what extent this disclosure is satisfying the perceived needs of readers of the financial statements, as represented by the investment analyst community.

Description: This article will examine four approaches under two different methods (eight in total) used to combat the non-additivity of key rates and will compare them under a number of rate environments.

Description: The article introduces a cashflow matching strategic asset allocation (SAA) framework for life insurers. Given the recent shift to higher interest rates after two decades of persistent low interest rates, insurers have an opportunity to enhance their asset liability management by rebalancing asset portfolios to narrow duration gaps and attain higher risk-adjusted yields. The framework aims to align investment objectives with economic, regulatory, and rating agency requirements. It prioritizes cashflow matching as the primary optimization goal and incorporates security-level asset information to assist portfolio managers in executing SAA seamlessly. The article highlights the benefits of the cashflow matching SAA framework, including greater attention to cashflow matching, unbiased results, readily executable strategies, and stable economic reserves. A case study is included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the framework in improving risk-adjusted return and cashflow matching for a representative liability block.

Description: This paper demonstrates that extreme value theory (EVT) can be used as a tool to model policyholder behavior in the extreme tail. This paper applies EVT to the study of variable annuity dynamic lapse behavior in the extreme tail. It illustrates a process whereby a company can fully model policyholder behavior, including the extreme tail, with existing data. No judgment about the extremal behavior is necessary.

Description: Abstract: The U.K. Pension Protection Fund (PPF) was established in April 2005 to protect the pensions of members of U.K. private sector defined benefit pension schemes that have insufficient assets and whose corporate sponsor fails. The Fund takes over the pension scheme assets and assumes responsibility for the payment of compensation to the former members of the scheme. The PPF is funded by a levy on the population of eligible schemes. To improve its ERM framework, the PPF has undertaken a reverse stress testing exercise. This analysis provided the organization with new insights into its risk profile, the scenarios leading to the PPF’s potential “failure,” and interactions between these scenarios. This paper discusses the principles and objectives of reverse stress testing in the special case of the PPF and then illustrates the application of complex system science techniques for the purpose of reverse stress testing.

Description: This paper examines the potential impact of increasing negative commentary by social media users in multiple forums, which can erode the “reputation capital” of a utility. It also offers an approach for successfully addressing that risk and integrating social media risk management practices into existing utility enterprise risk management (ERM) programs.

Description: Project portfolio risk management and risk analysis form one of the critical components of enterprise risk management. Organizations measure and analyze risks associated with projects, project portfolios, and programs. The important step of the process is quantitative risk analysis of project schedules using event chain methodology (ECM). ECM is a stochastic modeling technique for schedule risk analysis. All risks, including schedule and nonschedule-related risks, are assigned to a particular project and within this project to the particular activity or resource. Further, ECM allows one to model the relationship between project risks by defining risks that cause or trigger other risks. All risks and relationships between them will be presented on the project or portfolio Gantt charts using event chain diagrams. After risks are assigned to project and portfolio schedules, Monte Carlo simulation of the project schedule is performed. ECM simplifies complex risk analysis process.

Description: This paper provides a description of a system using statistical spatial methods for measuring, analysis, and managing ERM losses. An example of its application to a delinquency rate in a residential mortgage portfolio analysis demonstrates how this methodology can help decrease a company’s exposure in high-risk areas and increase exposure in low-risk areas.

Description: Many top-performing businesses aren’t just risk aware, but rather risk intelligent. Such a posture helps prepare companies for a major event and can demonstrate to a regulator or auditor that an appropriately strong control framework is in place. Better still, companies gain real strategic value from a “risk adjusted” understanding not only of their threats and vulnerabilities, but also the upside opportunities associated with various risks. It starts with having both qualitative and quantitative information to identify, assess and manage risks. Strategic risk management, at its core, is about creating value by increasing transparency and accountability, and quality of information. More than a mere compliance exercise, effective risk management enables more informed strategic decision making, increased accountability and transparency, a greater likelihood of organizational success, and – ultimately – competitive advantage, as borne out by many studies that correlate risk management and financial results.