Description: Welcome to our Genetic Algorithm shell for Excel.

Description: Issue overview and editorial on how the actuary of today must embrace the Complexity Science and Advanced Analytics tools of today in order to remain viable in a world where the skills of yesterday are no longer unique to actuaries.

Description: Futurists acknowledge the power that past performance might bring to the future, but they also explicitly recognize the possibility of ‘wild cards’ which might change the picture completely.

Description: This is a gentle introduction to fuzzy logic. It explains the concept and use of linguistic variables, reference ranges, fuzzification, and defuzzification without the usual advanced mathematics that sometimes obscure these ideas.

Description: Simple Rating Systems: Entry-level sports forecasting

Description: This article explores the use of Generalized Additive Models and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines to model nonlinear relationships in a linear response model. These models use supervised methods to determine the optimal shape of the predictors in the model. Users are provided an example use case so that they may get started right away building models to explore complex relationships in new ways.

Description: This article discusses how to handle semisupervised data. This type of data might have a large number of observations, yet a small number of labels.

Description: The Delphi Method is discussed in detail. The method attempts to filter out the consensus bias that can result from societal forces by employing a technique whereby an anonymous collection of opinions is used, supplemented by feedback loops that can be used to influence outcomes.

Description: This article provides a brief introduction to forecasting methods that are potentially relevant to actuarial work.

Description: Introduction of the new Forecasting and Futurism Section – helps members stay current, and facilitates professional development by providing information about and training in forecasting and futurism methods and tools.