Description: In today’s business world, many financial decisions undergo considerable analysis before the decision is made and the decision-maker is often held accountable for the outcomes. The purpose of this research is to introduce the concept of total risk analysis (TRA), which is designed to help the decision-maker answer key questions at the time the decision is made. This paper will focus on a specific example of a typical healthcare decision: setting a budget for claims in the upcoming year. In addition to explaining TRA and providing a case study, this paper presents quantitative research regarding cost distributions for health care costs.

Description: This article discusses the concept of Conservation of Mortality ("Conservation"). Conservation is the modeling principle that ensures consistency between assumptions of the total mortality of a population and mortality among population subsets. This article discusses the use cases for Conservation and the many ways that one could implement it in a model or an experience study. This article also discusses the potential issues that arise when using Conservation, and how one might solve or alleviate these issues.

Description: Results of a Survey of JRMS members re claims changes due to COVID

Description: This article is an introduction to the topic of mortality projections and their impact on social security systems. The article reviews two life expectancy graphs and overall trends in life expectancy by gender at birth and age 65 in the United States, Canada and the UK.

Description: Recent research from Financial Finesse introduces a viable way to forecast the potential return on investment (ROI) of workplace financial wellness programs.

Description: Using the Cox proportional Hazards Model to improve underwriting debits and credits.

Description: Accelerated underwriting programs continue to evolve at a rapid pace. Triage systems have become a key element in many of the newer accelerated underwriting programs in the market. Depending on the criteria used at the triage point, these programs can have residual effects on class prevalence and mortality which in turn affect the profitability of these programs. In this article we will explore some potential impacts on mortality and prevalence within these programs.

Description: This article provides a very high level overview of accelerated underwriting programs and their history in the US marketplace. It then discusses setting up an actuarial control cycle for such products and some items related to risk management that are helpful in this setting. Pros and cons of retrospective studies, random holdouts, targeted holdouts and post issue analysis are discussed. A mathematical example of how to estimate the mortality impact of such programs from early emerging experience is provided.

Description: The abstract for the paper The Lee-Carter Model for Forecasting Mortality Revisited.

Description: Discussion of 2008 Living to 100 General Session 4.