Description: Mortality Model Selection and Combination in RAlternative approaches for selecting mortality models and forecasting mortality have been proposed. The usual practice is to base mortality forecasts on a single mortality model selected using in-sample goodness-of-fit measures. However, cross-validation and other alternative out-of-sample measures are increasingly being used in model selection, and model combination methods are becoming a common alternative to using a single mortality model. Such methods combine predictions from multiple mortality models to reduce model choice uncertainty and improve forecast accuracy. Explore techniques to select and combine mortality models using the freely available open source R package CoMoMo (https://github.com/kessysalvatory/CoMoMo), which extends the widely used R package StMoMo (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=StMoMo). We will use data for the USA and other countries to discuss and demonstrate four different model combination approaches including simple model averaging, Bayesian model averaging, model confidence set, and stacked regression ensembles.

Description: "Living to 100 in the time of COVID-19: A Study of Late –Life Mortality Trajectories, Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D., Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D., Academic Research Centers, NORC at the University of Chicago Swedish Mortality Does Not Decelerate in Recent Cohorts, or Does it? – Roland Rau, Ph. D., Professor, University of Rostock & Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany; Marcus Ebeling, Ph.D., Karin Modig, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Anders Ahlbom, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm Sweden; Kai Kaufhold, Aktuar DAV, Ad Res Advanced Reinsurance Services GmbH, Cologne, Germany; Annika Ziegler, Lukas Stake, Hochschule Koblenz & Ad Res, Germany"

Description: Almost half of recent FDA approvals have been for orphan drugs. This trend is expected to continue in 2023. Orphan drugs are priced more than 30 times higher than non-orphan drugs, therefore their cost burden in aggregate has the potential to overwhelm the budgets of payers, especially that of smaller health plans. Hear how the cost impact analysis for smaller health plans require different considerations than for a larger health plan when modeling the impact of rare diseases.

Description: Unique Data Analysis Techniques to help plans find that 1% edge in opportunity and value. The discussion will vary from a conversation on members who are at high catastrophic risk to provider networks and referral patterns. The goal of the session will be to help show ways plans can create savings through outside-the-box techniques.

Description: This session will review reinsurance fundamentals, risk assessment techniques, optimization strategies, and regulatory considerations through case studies and best practices. Attendees will gain insights into enhancing capital management, risk mitigation, and improving operating results, utilizing practical insights from both reinsurers and direct experience. This presentation offers a valuable and practical opportunity to navigate the complexities of reinsurance, optimize transactions, and driving strategic growth in today's dynamic insurance landscape.

Description: This three-part series provides an overview of the rapidly evolving and dynamic gene and cellular therapy landscape, from the clinical, historical, and risk transfer perspectives. It covers the actuarial considerations in pricing cell and gene insurance and reinsurance, the value assessment of the therapies, manufacturer pricing, and reinsurance cost.

Description: ClubVita Session Series Buyouts and indemnity swaps remove all the longevity risk from an underlying population. However, they can be difficult to unwind and are not very flexible or widely tradable. Explore the characteristics and product structures of indexed based longevity swaps, demonstrating how they can cover any term, how they hedge the key component of trend risk and how, with new technology developments, they could lead to a liquid market.

Description: There are practical and conceptual aspects underlying (re)insurability. Practically, something or someone is insurable if an insurer is willing provide insurance coverage at a price the applicant is willing to pay. In contrast, a conceptual view of (re)insurabiity incorporates a range of more complex factors usually considered in the insurance process. This article discusses these two approaches.

Description: Reunite with members and non-members in the China actuarial community to discuss recent topics and related issues in areas such as macroeconomic sharing, IFRS 17, product strategy, cross-border communication and discussion, and more. Advance your career through learning and networking opportunities, and share your experiences in the finance and insurance industries, as well as other fields related to actuarial science.

Description: Canada has been proactive in establishing governance frameworks for reinsurance transactions. Initiatives from individuals, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions OSFI and the Canadian Institute of Actuaries CIA have addressed concerns about and scrutiny of reinsurance transactions from worldwide securities and insurance regulators, rating agencies and the media. It is important to note that actuaries have played a vital role in identifying and developing these initiatives and will continue to have a major influence in further development of governance standards and in providing education. From The Actuary Magazine June 2007