Description: Risk management techniques do not include system science. System science requires that the uncertainty of the world is incorporated into the results. The articles explains the difference between risk and uncertainty. Learn how risk practices create an overoptimistic view of future outcomes.

Description: Summarizes the state of US government balance sheet and defends the view that inflation will not rise sharply in the next few years.

Description: A discussion of the market opportunities for offering Stable Value Funds across the world.

Description: The actuary’s key role in the ORSA process should be to quantify the uncertainty surrounding the future financial results of the firm. By providing relevant standardized reports that clarify the uncertainty in terms easily understood by all stakeholders, the actuary will provide an essential element in the ORSA process. The dictum, "You can't manage what you can't measure." demonstrates the need to quantify risk, not just describe it qualitatively. While the ability to provide firm estimates of aggregate risk for complex organizations may not exist currently, doing so should be a target for the profession. The end result will be to enhance the financial security of the insurance industry at a time when all financial institutions are facing stakeholders skeptical about their financial condition. Part of the essay collection "Risk Metrics for Decision Making and ORSA"

Description: Editors discuss the articles in this issue.

Description: This article focuses on one fundamental modeling assumption — the choice of a benchmark rate or risk-free rate. The author looks at this bond market assumption as a case study of how one needs to monitor fundamental market changes for their impact on assumptions.

Description: A discussion of the theoretically correct approach to the valuation of cross-border insurance ventures

Description: This article introduces the reader to probabilistic methods used to model interactions in the financial market place. Three topics are specifically discussed, two concern modeling methods and the other concerns data analysis methods.

Description: Describes ways to avoid the next financial crisis by following the example of those who got it right and discerning what you could be doing to prevent your firm from experiencing excessive losses in future crises.

Description: The United States has received severe negative press the last several years regarding its massive U.S. federal government debt, currently estimated as of April 2007 at about $8.9 trillion. This article looks at the U.S. debt relative to other countries and also explores the impact on U.S. investments.