Description: Summary of the SOA research project on PBR Simplified Methods. Describes the multi-risk scenario generator, central estimate assumptions, assumption objectivity measures, and regulatory demonstrations per VM-20.

Description: Feature article about the use of approximations.

Description: European insurance regulation pretends to capture and rely on the 1-year 1-in-200 VaR. But there cannot exist any scientific calibration of such measure. Why?

Description: This paper presents a random selection method with the Monte Carlo simulation technique in the estimation of loss reserves. The future loss development factors are randomly selected from a weighted empirical distribution of observed loss development factors. This nonparametric approach provides an estimate of the distribution of total loss reserve.

Description: Traditional risk scoring models include only fixed (non-random) demographic and condition-based variables. By including the provider effect as part of the risk scoring model as a random effect, we can get better estimates of provider performance (incorporating practice patterns conditional on patient morbidity profile). This approach can be generalized to study other factors that are now masked in error variance (i.e. area, Social Determinants) but if modeled could give us better estimates of risk

Description: This is a presentation From 38th Annual Actuarial Research Conference 8/9/2003, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan. Pricing health insurance presents numerous statistical problems. This paper develops a non-parametric method for handling these problems. This method involves kernel density estimation of the charge level distribution and also kernel smoothing between the reimbursement function derivatives. It derives some properties of the estimates so obtained. It illustrates the method with some dental data and compares the results to some other simpler estimation techniques.

Description: Recognizing an opportunity to help serve its members in this age of increased financial oversight, the Health Section of the Society of Actuaries commissioned a series of guides on the use of statistical techniques specifically geared for the work of health actuaries. In this first guide in the series, the topic is an estimate well-known to health actuaries- the calculation of incurred but not reported [IBNR] health claims reserves. In particular, this guide focuses on the development of confidence intervals around IBNR estimates.

Description: In this continuation of our July 2013 article we explore an algorithm for evaluating Hidden Markov Models in detail. A preferred method in speech recognition technology, Hidden Markov Models are a promising technique when dealing with data you suspect may be driven by a change in a unobservable state. The example in the article is provided in an Excel workbook for the reader to follow along with.

Description: A guide to the protocols and rules necessary to ensure an accurate savings comparison when using an historical claims repricing in the PBM RFP process.