Description: This paper illustrates a current approach to capital allocation, referred to herein as Tail Contribution Analysis TCA, using it to evaluate the impact of changes in an insurer’s operations by allocating capital to individual lines of business. It then highlights a common problem in the implementation of the procedure arising from reserve volatility and briefly notes the failure of the methodology to account for a firm’s changing levels of risk under various strategies. Finally, it introduces an alternative method for analyzing business segments and strategies called Economic Profit Analysis EPA. We will discuss EPA’s key feature, “volatility replication,” an intuitively appealing process of building investor expectations and capital market information into the risk-and-return measurements used to evaluate strategic decisions. Finally, we will illustrate the benefit of using EPA in overcoming the problems of TCA and thereby providing concise reliable information for business decision making.

Description: This paper considers the problem of actuaries acting as advisers to individuals. This activity is covered by regulations, discussed in the paper, that currently recognize other professions but not actuaries. The paper recommends that actuarial organizations lobby the relevant legislative and regulatory bodies to provide actuaries pursuing an investment-focused career path with the same exemption status as other professionals.

Description: This paper introduces a rich stochastic modeling framework for understanding risks in multiple-decrement contracts. The example in the paper is a 20-year Term insurance contract. Not only are mortality and lapsation considered stochastic, but the parameters governing them are. For example, mortality risk is composed of four risk elements, including error generated in the underwriting process, volatility around the best estimate, catastrophic events that impact mortality, and the trend in mortality improvement or deterioration. When stochastically modeled, the relative contribution and risk profile of each risk element can be evaluated. Generating stochastic mortality results provides a distribution of results that an organization faces and the severity and incidence of the tail events.

Description: This paper defines health expectancy as that part of life expectancy where the person is expected to be healthy. It also breaks down the remainder of life expectancy into two unhealthy categories, one where assisted living will be necessary, and one where a skilled nursing facility will be necessary. These expectations are calculated for many combinations of age, other demographic characteristics, and current health issues.

Description: The authors introduce an alternative to Tail Contribution Analysis TCA for analyzing business segments and strategies called Economic Profit Analysis EPA. They discuss EPA’s key feature, “volatility replication,” an intuitively appealing process of building investor expectations and capital market information into the risk-and-return measurements used to evaluate strategic decisions. Finally, they illustrate the benefit of using EPA in overcoming the problems of TCA and thereby providing concise reliable information for business decision making.

Description: Index for the May 2007 issue of The Actuarial Practice Forum.

Description: This paper advocates asset/liability management for pension plans. It identifies the economic factors that influence the economic value of liabilities and discusses the typical asset portfolio that results.

Description: The author has gathered a variety of resources, general theories, and specific practices concerning spreadsheet errors and their avoidance.

Description: This paper will provide demonstrations of the following three statements: That the calculation of principles-based reserves should ignore federal income taxes That the currently required statutory deferred tax calculation would need to be changed to permit an appropriate deferred tax asset to accompany such reserve so that the result can be correctly principles-based on a post-tax basis That the Tax DAC, pursuant to Section 848 of the Internal Revenue Code, is effectively a negative tax reserve.

Description: This is the version of the SOA’s research report that appeared in the July 2008 issue of the Actuarial Practice Forum. This report presents modeling results of the possible impact of the IASB’s preliminary views of accounting for insurance contract liabilities on certain U.S. Life, health and annuity insurance products. This report presents comparisons of selected U.S. GAAP values to corresponding values of the proposed International Financial Reporting Standard IFRS results.