Description: As the topic of affordable long-term care (LTC) insurance comes into focus in political conversations, we often find ourselves thinking, “What is going to happen to the private LTC insurance industry going forward?” The need for LTC in the United States is not going away, especially as the population continues to age. With this in mind, this article explores three possible future paths for LTC insurance funding and the associated implications for the private LTC industry.

Description: A periodic update from the chairperson on section council activities and outlook for the coming year.

Description: Discussion on Living to 100 Session 4B. Papers presented: Typology and Review of Measures of Human Aging, Longevity and Superlongevity with Applications to US Data and Some Implications for US Public Programs and, Mortality Measurements at Advanced Ages: A Study of the Social Security Master Death File

Description: This paper introduces the author's globalization model of work and retirement in the 21st century. To make the model work, there is a need for a prototype social security system with many desirable features called National Provident Fund for each nation.

Description: What are the recent expectations of long-term trends in mortality? What are the limits to improvements in longevity? Join us as we review the factors impacting U.S. population mortality in the eyes of demographers. By the end of this session, you will have an awareness of the major causes of mortality and how they are trending.

Description: "Living to 100 in the time of COVID-19: A Study of Late –Life Mortality Trajectories, Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D., Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D., Academic Research Centers, NORC at the University of Chicago Swedish Mortality Does Not Decelerate in Recent Cohorts, or Does it? – Roland Rau, Ph. D., Professor, University of Rostock & Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany; Marcus Ebeling, Ph.D., Karin Modig, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Anders Ahlbom, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm Sweden; Kai Kaufhold, Aktuar DAV, Ad Res Advanced Reinsurance Services GmbH, Cologne, Germany; Annika Ziegler, Lukas Stake, Hochschule Koblenz & Ad Res, Germany"

Description: Mortality Model Selection and Combination in RAlternative approaches for selecting mortality models and forecasting mortality have been proposed. The usual practice is to base mortality forecasts on a single mortality model selected using in-sample goodness-of-fit measures. However, cross-validation and other alternative out-of-sample measures are increasingly being used in model selection, and model combination methods are becoming a common alternative to using a single mortality model. Such methods combine predictions from multiple mortality models to reduce model choice uncertainty and improve forecast accuracy. Explore techniques to select and combine mortality models using the freely available open source R package CoMoMo (https://github.com/kessysalvatory/CoMoMo), which extends the widely used R package StMoMo (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=StMoMo). We will use data for the USA and other countries to discuss and demonstrate four different model combination approaches including simple model averaging, Bayesian model averaging, model confidence set, and stacked regression ensembles.

Description: This topic will explore current and upcoming changes to the risk adjustment models and strategies for payers and risk bearing providers to reduce/avoid headwinds and potentially come out on top in the years ahead. We will discuss the timeline, nature and motivation for changes as well as the anticipated associated impacts.

Description: On July 1, 2023, CMS began their latest Medicare Oncology program, Enhancing Oncology Model (EOM) which was the successor to the previous Oncology Care Model (OCM). Despite a high level of interest during the application period, this model has been met with limited participation, with only 44 participants at the start of the program.

Description: Call for essays on how actuaries can apply their financial skills to support non-profit financial management and promote societal purpose.