Description: This research was funded by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada [NSERC] Discovery Grant 36860–06. Loss reserving is one of the most challenging tasks facing actuaries. Numerous approaches have been developed to give reasonable estimates. Generalized linear models [GLMs] are becoming quickly popular statistical analysis methods to estimate loss reserves. However, most of these models are aggregate reserving methods based on loss development triangles, without using information with regard to the actual claims processes. This paper establishes a more sophisticated structural reserving method incorporating more detailed information, such as the premium exposure emergence pattern, the loss emergence pattern and the loss development pattern, within the framework of GLMs.

Description: The Risk Management Task Force polled the Risks & Rewards readers and asked the following questions related to Monte Carlo models: 1 How many scenarios do you run? 2 How did you determine the number? and 3 What confidence interval does your result have? The results are summarized in this article.

Description: Feature article discussing numerical short cuts, rules of thumb, estimators, modeling tips, etc. The featured problem is fitting the intermediate points for a real-world stochastic model of interest rates.

Description: An overview of guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefits (GLWB) on registered index-linkedannuity (RILA) products and a stochastic analysis of market risks.

Description: This article looks at stochastic techniques actuaries can use to quantify the non-market risks in insurance products and how stochastic techniques can be used in the evaluation of reinsurance arrangements.

Description: The author notes “a telescope and a kaleidoscope both provide a view but that is where the similarities end. A telescope shows us an actual view whereas a kaleidoscope creates a view from broken pieces of glass. This article will analyze which analogy is closer to the stochastic modeling of interest rate or stock market projections.”

Description: Summary of NAIC's Winter National Meeting

Description: In order for actuaries to play a valuable role in the realm of enterprise risk management ERM, they must provide value-added advice and quantitative analyses. In this paper, the authors use stochastic simulation technology to present a risk metric for defined benefit pension plans that provides improved measures of the plan’s solvency and provides a tool for pension plan managers to determine the value of risk mitigation activities.

Description: We consider a class of compound renewal risk process with claim waiting times have a discrete Km distribution. The classical compound binomial risk model is a special case when m = 1. Both recursive and explicit formulas are derived for the expected discounted penalty function due at ruin, for the surplus before ruin and the deficit at ruin. Many ruin related quantities can be analyzed through the penalty function, e.g., ruin probability, the p.g.f. of the time of ruin, joint and marginal distributions of the surplus before ruin and the deficit at ruin, claim causing ruin, as well as their moments. Detailed discussions are given in two special cases: claim sizes are rationally distributed, or the claim sizes distribution have a finite support.

Description: Market consistent valuations require path-dependent discounting for scenarios. IFRS 17's requirement to discount best-estimate cashflows using locked-in rates could give non-sensical results in many instances. This article describes a technique for calibrating each of the scenario's cashflows so that they can be discounted with other discount factors or curves without distorting the value of underlying options and guarantees.