Description: This is a presentation from 43rd Actuarial Research Conference ARC, Regina, August 14–16, 2008. This talk will present the moment generating function of the discounted compound Poisson aggregate sums when the deflated claims are PH distributed and moment generating function of the discounted compound renewal sums.

Description: This research was funded by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada [NSERC] Discovery Grant 36860–06. Loss reserving is one of the most challenging tasks facing actuaries. Numerous approaches have been developed to give reasonable estimates. Generalized linear models [GLMs] are becoming quickly popular statistical analysis methods to estimate loss reserves. However, most of these models are aggregate reserving methods based on loss development triangles, without using information with regard to the actual claims processes. This paper establishes a more sophisticated structural reserving method incorporating more detailed information, such as the premium exposure emergence pattern, the loss emergence pattern and the loss development pattern, within the framework of GLMs.

Description: This abstract describes a paper that presents preliminary observations with respect to probabilistic fuzzy systems.

Description: A study on stochastic simulation literature as it applies to a health actuary.

Description: This session from the 1995 Vancouver Meeting reexamines Monte Carlo solutions for actuarial problems. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 21, No. 3a.

Description: Panel session exploring a variety of issues connected to long-term disability reserve buyouts, including: · Advantages and risks for buyers and sellers · Use of appropriate reserving assumptions · Possible financial structures for a buyout

Description: The Risk Management Task Force polled the Risks & Rewards readers and asked the following questions related to Monte Carlo models: 1 How many scenarios do you run? 2 How did you determine the number? and 3 What confidence interval does your result have? The results are summarized in this article.

Description: Feature article discussing numerical short cuts, rules of thumb, estimators, modeling tips, etc. The featured problem is fitting the intermediate points for a real-world stochastic model of interest rates.

Description: 2011 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Chicago. This study investigates whether simulation-based models can be used to predict liquidity risk for banks, which must comply with Basel III by January 2015. The paper looks at the process of developing a measurement framework using Black-Scholes and Merton’s asset-based models to measure liquidity risk.

Description: This session of the SOA 2003 Washington, DC Spring Meeting covers the basics of stochastic modeling with focus on random number and scenario generation, steps in creating models, and verification of models and assumptions.