Description: In this paper, we illustrate how to value American-style options using the Least-Squares Monte Carlo LSM approach proposed by Longstaff and Schwartz 2001 and investigate whether there exists an optimal regression complexity in the LSM framework for options pricing. In particular, we use the smoothing spline in the regression step, which allows us to control the regression complexity on a continuous scale with just one tuning parameter. Numerical results on American put options indicate that we need to use more than a linear regression, but as the regression becomes more complex, the accuracy of the LSM method quickly deteriorates. From 39th Actuarial Research Conference.

Description: Feature article discussing how market interest rates and bond yields dropped in response to the global financial crisis in late 2008, and they have struggled to return to their prior levels, in part because the Federal Reserve has made efforts to spur growth and lending in a sluggish U.S. economy.

Description: Chapter 4 describes growth issues including multiple account problems of the old SAR, the amount of money in the AFOREs, and portfolio composition in the AFOREs. From Retrospective and Perspective Analysis of the Privatized Mandatory Pension System in Mexico, M-RS02-1.

Description: This article discusses how publicly traded companies fail to realize their full potential due to a lack of clarity in identifying which shareholders they are trying to serve, especially when viewing short term versus long term goals.

Description: Public DB plans have fatal designs such as basing benefits on a few years of earnings. Redesigning DB to be similar to SS will alleviate solvency challenges.

Description: Reports the results of one application of a Future Research technique-in this case, forecasting future economic variables.

Description: Many risk management decisions involve the timing of implementing risk strategies. The cost of hedging, capital raising and securitization changes with the economic environment. The timing of de-risking and investment in new risk management functions affect the cost and benefit of these projects as well. Like investment timing, it is important to consider the timing in risk management decisions to maximize the gain of risk management projects. This paper discusses methods of determining the appropriate timing of implementing a risk management strategy or investing in risk management projects. It explains the human biases that may lead to inferior timing decisions. It also covers the costs and benefits of risk management projects and the impact of new information on the decision-making process. Timing considerations for financial risk hedging, insurance risk hedging and investment in new risk management projects are explained. Factors used for timing decisions include economic conditions, market volatility, credit rating, borrowing cost, capital adequacy and financial resources.

Description: This paper, originally published in 1992 in the Transactions of Society of Actuaries Vol. 44, deals with a topic that is becoming increasingly important to actuaries in most fields of practice. “Without relying on formulas, this paper presents the important concepts underlying the theory of arbitrage-free pricing of interest-rate-contingent cash flows.” This paper, by James A. Tilley, won the 1992-93 Annual Prize, and the Halmstad Prize for 1992. The paper includes written discussion and the author’s review of the discussions.

Description: Explains that the conflict of two forces – a need for economic growth in a world that can no longer provide growing oil supply – sets the financial system up for a systemic risk of collapse.

Description: In this paper, the authors have analyzed the Cash Balance pension and contributions using the methods and principles of financial economics, to give a market consistent evaluation of the costs of the CB liability.