Description: When building stress tests, modelers need to consider worst cases that are plausible. The most useful and robust scenarios begin qualitatively, with a narrative or story. Consistent quantitative relationships are then developed.

Description: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been our chosen metric for growth since the Great Depression, but expectations are for lower GDP growth going forward than we are accustomed to. Its two components, population and productivity, face headwinds—population from a declining birth rate and longevity, and productivity from increased climate events, energy costs, global conflict and raw materials shortages.

Description: This call for essays where encourages authors to identify data sets or historical patterns of experience that are not predictive because something has changed.

Description: Combinations of risks are an important component of the Survey of Emerging Risks, now in its 15th iteration. Also known as risk clusters or compound risks, the most popular in the survey define threat multipliers, where a risk makes other risks worse. The top risks chosen are trended for the last 10 years, showing interesting cycles and discontinuities.

Description: The goals of this project are to describe the impact on assets and liabilities if nominal interest rates remained low for an extended period of time. In addition, several other questions were considered that provide insights to the reader: • Is a long-term low interest rate scenario possible? • What could cause a long-term low nominal interest rate scenario and should this be presented to management? • What strategies should insurers and others providing oversight consider in response to an extended low interest rate scenario?