Description: In this article, the author examines Nassim Taleb’s work and writings and discusses its relevance to the future of the actuarial profession.

Description: This file contains functions to produce the graph examples found in Chapter four of the report titled Complexity science - an introduction and invitation for actuaries.

Description: This workbook shows the Schelling Segregation model. It accompanies the report Complexity Science - an introduction (and invitation) for actuaries, and supports the material in Chapter six: Cellular automata.

Description: This project shows how to use agent-based models to simulate the behaviors of agents in complex health systems.

Description: This research report includes an overview of the field's key results, detailed instructions for building Complexity Science models, examples of working models to run, a review of practical models applicable to the work of actuaries, an extensive literature review, and a discussion of how actuaries can apply Complexity Science in their work.

Description: This paper explores how health care complexity challenges us to expand our repertoire of actuarial methods—and even recast our trend driver paradigm—in order to do our jobs better and maintain our credibility.

Description: This is an article that discusses Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s work and its significance for actuaries.

Description: Given the ubiquity of judgmental forecasting, it is important to understand the potential biases inherent in human judgment—the traps that can snare us—and to learn methods and best practices to avoid them. The aim of this article is to help readers with these goals.

Description: An overview of forecasting methods potentially applicable to the work of actuaries, including preferred applications, current usage among actuaries and within the general business community, along with references for further study.

Description: This project shows how to use agent-based models to simulate the behaviors of agents in complex health systems.