Description: This is the agenda for the 33rd Annual Actuarial Research Conference held at Georgia State University, August 6-8, 1998.

Description: The financing for Social Security is a pay-as-you-go system, rather than the full-reserve system utilized in private insurance, and the financing conditions of the trust funds have more uncertainty than does the reserve in private insurance. Traditionally, the financing conditions have been decided by a deterministic approach using economic and demographic assumptions that rely upon negotiation among experts at various government agencies. This paper proposes an econometric approach, called the 'co-integrated multivariate time series model,' for forecasting the financing conditions of the trust funds. This stochastic approach not only establishes the interrelationships but also clarifies the co-movements among the economic assumptions. Furthermore, it helps analyze the original assumptions rather than the differences of the nonstationary assumption variables adopted by researchers in the past that are more difficult to interpret. Use of this approach permits the assessment of the probability distribution of the future balance of trust funds instead of assessing estimates from the three alternative deterministic assumptions. This distribution will provide policy-makers with a better assessment of stability of the trust funds.

Description: This article comments on the editorial policies of the Actuarial Research Clearing House publication. ARCH 2000 Vol 1

Description: What are the possible future implications to insurance companies of significant improvements in mortality? How can futurism techniques be used in research? The formation of the mortality improvement study group at the Principal Financial Group was the first step toward examining the issue of mortality improvement. In an interactive format, we will present what we learned about mortality and futurism techniques by participating in this group.

Description: In recent years, insurance companies have been introducing saving products whose returns are linked to equity market performance. Equity-indexed annuities [EIA's] are one of the products of this kind. This paper is a study on the recent introduction and popularity growth of equity-indexed annuities. An index is considered which provides a minimum interest guarantee and a participation in the increase in an index.

Description: Actuarial science is at a cross roads. Many are urging that our highly successful examination process be partially abandoned in favour of accepting university courses in a number of basic subjects. This drive is based in part on the difficulties in supporting the present system, the experience elsewhere and a misplaced confidence in the quality of the university system. This paper explores where the university system is and where it needs to go in order to adequately serve the interests of the actuarial community.

Description: In this paper, we propose measures of the risk that the value of the liabilities becomes larger than the value of the assets, and this especially for insurance companies. We study probabilities of mismatching and a degree of mismatching in unsegmented and multidimensional models of the balance, in which we stress the influence of interest rates on the active and passive side of the balance.

Description: The purpose of this paper is to trace the change in Canadian company expenses, comparing the six postwar years 1946 to 1951 with the prewar year 1939. Includes costs per policy and as percentage of premium, and also compares to expected costs. Expenses by company size are also shown.