Description: June 21 2021 Exam PA data

Description: Healthcare costs have been rising faster than general inflation for many years. Early models that predicted this past pattern projected healthcare expenditure growth that continued to outpace total expenditure growth leading to the fallacious position that the whole of the US economy would ultimately be consumed by healthcare. The Society of Actuaries' Pension Section and Health Section Research teams commissioned Professor Thomas E. Getzen of Temple University to construct a resource model for the projection of long term healthcare cost trends that includes capacity constraints to ensure the long-term projection is rational. The motivation for creation of the model was driven by its potential usage as a resource for the estimation of reportable liabilities for retiree healthcare benefits as specified under FAS 106 and GASB 45 accounting statements. This is a zip file containing the following: 1. A background paper on the creation of the health trend model, 2. The model, programmed in Microsoft Excel [xls format], that projects per-person expenditures and growth rates through 2099 using baseline assumptions, but also permits the flexibility for user–inputted alternative assumptions, and 3. Technical documentation providing transparency and support for the ultimate results.

Description: Predictive modeling has ranked highly in terms of technical skills desired by employers of actuaries. In recent surveys it has been identified as a key opportunity for actuarial professionals to add more value to their organizations. While there has been an increased focus on predictive modeling at industry conferences, the subject lends itself very well to a hands-on learning experience. That is one of the motivations behind organizing this boot camp.

Description: Spreadsheets that define the examples shown in Chapter 8 of the US GAAP 2nd Edition Textbook

Description: Data files for Session 6a: GLM & Recursive Partitioning in Heath Care Applications.

Description: 3 R’s and Predictive Modeling Boot Camp software package.

Description: Download the papers from the 2009 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium.

Description: Download the papers from the Securitization of Insurance Risk: The 1995 Bowles Symposium.

Description: This is an excel spreadsheet showing mortality data from all companies ILEC 2005–07 supporting files and additional information by age band. Please see the SOA website experience studies for the full report and other related tables.