Description: Uncertainty of a predictive model is a fact of life that many insurers could be overlooking at their peril without a framework for assessing it. The article provides a framework to understand the prediction uncertainty, which can be critical for the insurance operations using predictive models. Coin toss example explains model uncertainty and randomness inherent in making predictions to the number of heads expected. A mortality analysis case study illustrates how the Bayesian methodology can be used to develop the prediction uncertainty. In particular, the article shows that the Bayesian framework is a way to combine historical data and actuarial judgment, and directly address the model uncertainty through its posterior distribution.

Description: Increasing technology is available to create and disseminate educational resources worldwide. In response, this article advocates creation of open educational resources (OERs) that will benefit the actuarial profession with both recruitment and retention of members. Specifically, we describe OER contributions made at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and more recently through the ASTIN Academy, a working group of ASTIN, the non-life section of the International Actuarial Association. We advocate pushing boundaries and creating new ways of teaching effectively for the future. The innovative use of technology and open-source materials is a way to foster diversity, equity, and inclusion in the actuarial profession.

Description: In this video, Chris Smith ASA MAAA, a health actuarial consultant and data science enthusiast, introduces the basics of machine learning and its applications in actuarial science. He covers various techniques, such as unsupervised, supervised, and reinforcement learning, as well as neural networks and gradient boosting. He also discusses the potential risks and ethical considerations of using these advanced technologies in the actuarial field. Contributors: Chris Smith, ASA, MAAA, Jason Reed, FSA, MAAA, Mitchell Momanyi FSA MAAA, Jessica Calafell, FSA, MAAA; Jon Forster ASA, MAAA

Description: Early in his career, Ehren Nagel, FSA, MAAA, scoured through podcasts and articles about predictive analytics, long suspecting this was a field with potential for him.

Description: While many know that machine learning is a big deal and even have a general idea of what it is, many do not know what machine learning can do for them. As an alternative to citing achievements or explaining algorithms, this article outlines the challenges that occur in statistics and the solutions that machine learning offers. Some of those challenges include correlated predictors, missing data, data interaction, and prediction intervals. Corresponding solutions include regularization technics, missing value imputation with KNN, tree based models, and cluster analysis for backtesting.

Description: In this video, Dave Ingram FSA MAAA, a SOA board member and podcast host, discusses the ten AI risks that insurers face and the specific mitigations that can be used for each of them. He also explains the importance of having an AI Use Policy that covers various aspects of data governance, ethical guidelines, transparency, fairness, human oversight, and compliance. He concludes by noting that AI will evolve and insurers will need to monitor and remediate their AI applications accordingly. Contributors: Dave Ingram FSA, MAAA; Chis Lombardi, FSA, MAAA; Jon Forster, ASA, MAAA

Description: Discussion of machine learning applications currently being used to augment traditional actuarial modeling in the life insurance industry. This includes data science techniques for: Quantifying and explaining differences between model versions or reporting periods Building proxy models for actuarial model output using machine learning One-class classification for data integrity checks Applications of unsupervised learning (e.g., clustering and principal components analysis) to reduce model run time

Description: Yi-Ling Lin, FSA, MAAA, FCA, started the SOA’s Predictive Analytics Certificate Program to keep pace with the impact big data and predictive modeling is having on the health care industry

Description: In this video Jing Lang emphasizes the importance of ethical considerations in AI utilization, particularly focusing on privacy, bias, transparency, and creativity. It highlights the need for collaboration among various stakeholders to address these concerns through regulations, diversity promotion, and ongoing discussions. Sources of bias in AI, such as underrepresented datasets and historical biases, are identified along with strategies to mitigate bias, including careful assessment of inputs and retaining algorithms. Contributors: Jing Lang, FSA, FCIA, MAAA FLMI; Scott Allen, FSA, MAAAA, Henry Chen FSA, FCIA, MAAA; Jon Forster ASA, MAAA

Description: Deep learning neural network applied to experience analysis for post-level term lapse and mortality.