Description: Presents a summary of the results of the Economic Assumptions Guidance Task Force survey regarding use of economic assumptions in insurance modeling.

Description: 1988 Valuation Actuary Symposium. The session discussed the C-3 risk, not the C-1 risk in the title. It explored the question: For testing purposes, how does one create the investment scenarios to which you expose your assets and liabilities?

Description: With the adoption of the C-3 Phase 2 Project of the American Academy of Actuaries, it is now required that stochastic scenarios be developed for establishing reserves for variable annuities. This project has led to the idea of Principle-Based Reserving PBR where many of the same techniques will be used to set life insurance reserves. This article describes the choice of a Random Number Generator RNG to develop the random scenarios.

Description: This is a brief on a publication intended to serve as an in-depth primer on economic scenario generators.

Description: Survey of appointed actuaries about asset adequacy testing techniques currently being used in 2012.

Description: According to the Actuarial Standards Board’s Actuarial Standard of Practice No. 49 (ASOP 49), actuarially sound Medicaid managed care capitation rates will include a provision for underwriting gain in order to provide compensation for the risks assumed by an MCO. However, there is no generally accepted method for quantifying underwriting gain in managed Medicaid capitation rates. This article discusses a new model developed to address this void and calculate underwriting gain. The model was developed by researching existing financial literature and performing a statistical analysis of industry data to build out a framework that can be leveraged to estimate underwriting gain.

Description: Presented at May 1996 Spring Meeting. Teaching session on various types of algorithms that can be used, their applications and their pros and cons.

Description: The SOA’s Committee on Finance Research recently made available the results of a research study that explores economic series and provides an Excel-based tool for generating future economic scenarios. From Risks and Rewards Newsletter, August 2005, Issue No. 47.

Description: For the purposes of risk management and stress testing, we characterize a spectrum of plausible extreme events, that we dub Grey Swans, by introducing a probabilistic method involving the concentration of measure phenomenon. As a result, stress tests can be triaged according to severity, probability and, now, information-based plausibility.

Description: The article warns against treating the results of a stochastic model with more deference than other actuarial analysis, and describes some hidden risks involved with choice of model and calibration.