Description: Survey of appointed actuaries about asset adequacy testing techniques currently being used in 2012.

Description: For the purposes of risk management and stress testing, we characterize a spectrum of plausible extreme events, that we dub Grey Swans, by introducing a probabilistic method involving the concentration of measure phenomenon. As a result, stress tests can be triaged according to severity, probability and, now, information-based plausibility.

Description: The SOA’s Committee on Finance Research recently made available the results of a research study that explores economic series and provides an Excel-based tool for generating future economic scenarios. From Risks and Rewards Newsletter, August 2005, Issue No. 47.

Description: According to the Actuarial Standards Board’s Actuarial Standard of Practice No. 49 (ASOP 49), actuarially sound Medicaid managed care capitation rates will include a provision for underwriting gain in order to provide compensation for the risks assumed by an MCO. However, there is no generally accepted method for quantifying underwriting gain in managed Medicaid capitation rates. This article discusses a new model developed to address this void and calculate underwriting gain. The model was developed by researching existing financial literature and performing a statistical analysis of industry data to build out a framework that can be leveraged to estimate underwriting gain.

Description: This article describes some of the drawbacks to the assessment of longevity risk adopted by most practitioners within the UK together with an initiative that provides a platform for an alternative approach that is both (a) more forward-looking in nature and (b) can complement current practices.

Description: The article warns against treating the results of a stochastic model with more deference than other actuarial analysis, and describes some hidden risks involved with choice of model and calibration.

Description: The research investigates the challenges associated with determining a “fair value” assessment for embedded options in two product types and incorporates the process into product pricing and liability valuation

Description: This article discusses an upcoming SOA/CAS sponsored project regarding the Modeling of Economic Series Coordinated with Interest Rate Scenarios.

Description: Describes using the new multi-risk scenario generator to create sensitivity tests at moderately adverse probability levels, resulting in margins to use for PBR.

Description: An observation is made regarding the impact interest rate scenarios have on VM-20 stochastic reserves.