Description: This article discusses steps to follow to ensure a more rational and productive approach to data analysis.

Description: Feature article discussing the difficult situation of actuarial forecasting with little or no date.

Description: A discussion on how to avoid bias when choosing research topics.

Description: Opinion article that explores the possibility of the actuarial profession producing its own Nate Silver, someone able to convert complicated actuarial concepts into meaningful and understandable public communications.

Description: This study note was written to supplement the “Credibility” chapter of Foundations of Casualty Actuarial Science as a reading for the fourth CAS/SOA examination. It presents important topics not covered in the Foundations chapter including the Bühlmann-Straub Model and nonparametric and semiparametric estimation of credibility formula parameters.

Description: Gives examples of the difference between actual data distribution of investment returns compared with lognormal assumptions.

Description: Summary of NAIC's Winter National Meeting

Description: In Medicaid rate development, actuaries have not historically shared models that developed the margin (i.e., underwriting gain) assumption. This is unfortunate, given the margin assumption is one of the most critical components of the rate development in ensuring financial solvency of the Medicaid managed care organizations (MCOs). In this session, we will discuss the primary components of the this assumption and will share working models that help actuaries quantify these components—including the cost of capital and risk (or contingency) margin. We expect a lively discussion as we “open the black box” and discuss these actuarial assumptions in the public for the first time.

Description: This abstract describes a paper that discusses insurance claim forecasting using econometric stepwise regression to analyze historical data.

Description: Appendix E is round 2 on comments on application of judgmental methods from the Delphi study. See the SOA Website Research section for the full Delphi Study of Economic Variables Report along with all the variables.