Description: Register for the 2019 Practical Predictive Analytics Seminar.

Description: View the Living to 100 Symposium Sponsorship Package.

Description: We introduce a logistic regression-based modeling approach for analyzing the U.S. insured mortality experience, including at advanced ages where less credible experience data are available. As a validation, we create a version of industry basic experience tables based on the model-estimated mortality and compare them to standard industry experience tables produced by the Society of Actuaries (SOA). The conclusion is that properly designed logistic modeling processes can more efficiently utilize available data to deliver solutions for multiple needs, including: a) testing mortality drivers’ statistical significances in explaining mortality variations; b) estimating normalized mortality slopes and mortality differentials such as how mortality increases by duration or varies between underwriting classes while product and attained-age distributions are controlled; and c) addressing analytical challenges such as extrapolating for ultimate mor tality, smoothing between select and ultimate estimations, and constructing multidimensional basic experience tables.

Description: Exposure to cigarette smoke has had and will continue to have a huge effect on mortality. Significant differences in smoking prevalence rates by gender have contributed to differential levels and rates of improvement in mortality and are expected to continue to influence mortality improvement differently over the next several decades. This paper compares smoking prevalence and cessation by gender and their effect on smoking-attributable and, in turn, all-cause mortality. A summary of mortality attribution approaches used to evaluate the effect of smoking and projections of mortality rates by gender is also provided.

Description: This article looks at changes in life spans and retirement ages. The changes are completely out of sync. The history of retirement and retirement ages is reviewed. The article finds that while life spans were increasing for many years, retirement ages were dropping and then they had a modest increase recently. There are parallel issues in many countries and some international data is provided. The issue of working as part of retirement and phased retirement are introduced. The article concludes that more change is needed and that the failure to keep retirement ages updated is one of the reasons for the decline in defined benefit plans.

Description: Session 5c Discussion transcript

Description: Abstract for Contribution of Familial Longevity to Living to 100

Description: Complete listing of the tables used in the study to analyze the research data. From Group Medical Insurance Large Claims Database Collection and Analysis, M-HB97-1.

Description: Investment Fallacies: The "Dollar Bill" Fallacy

Description: This research report examines the ban of the use of genetic testing information in life insurance mortality.