Description: Discussion of significant anomalies in option pricing due to the independent identically distributed assumption of the Black Scholes formula.

Description: This paper demonstrates that using a conditional probability approach to analyzing investment data yields investment forecast and stock option pricing models which more closely match actual market data, and it demonstrates the impact that conditional probabilities could have on CAPM beta and risk premia calculations. Reprinted from: Journal of Financial and Economic Practice, Vol. 6 No. 2 Spring 2006.

Description: 2011 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Chicago. This paper highlights the impact that a change in conditional data would have on a variety of risk assessment models, with specific emphasis on investment forecasting.

Description: Feature article about: one of the significant contributions of modern academic finance has been to introduce the concept of stochastic investment forecasting