Description: This report describes two methods, an observation-based analysis and an actual to model analysis, to analyze long-term care insurance experience to determine if calendar year trends exist.

Description: Healthcare risk adjustment methodologies have become increasingly complex, largely due to the belief that complexity enhances accuracy. However, a disconnect exists between how healthcare risk is assessed and how payments are adjusted. This article explores the stark difference between measuring the accuracy of a risk assessment model at a member level, and that of a risk adjustment mechanism at the health plan level. I show that a highly simplified approach that does not use diagnosis codes can have similar accuracy on risk adjusted payments to models that do. These findings suggest that accuracy is not a barrier to developing simpler risk adjustment methodologies, which can improve payment accuracy and reduce the financial incentive for coding diagnoses.

Description: The article explores a closed-form forecasting method that combines Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA), weighted linear regression, and ridge regression (L2 regularization). The approach addresses two key challenges in time-series forecasting: adapting to nonstationarity and mitigating overfitting due to multicollinearity. EWMA assigns more weight to recent observations, while ridge regression penalizes large coefficients to stabilize estimates. A cross-validation strategy across rolling time windows selects optimal hyperparameters: the EWMA decay factor (α) and the ridge penalty (λ). The method is tested using repeated regressions of stock returns, showing that most hyperparameter combinations outperform ordinary least squares (OLS) under the (λ=1, α=0) setting.

Description: In *From Distress to Distinction*, Chris Droussiotis explores a novel approach to valuing distressed companies using option pricing theory, drawing parallels to the financial challenges faced by startups. With over 30 years in banking and startup advising, he emphasizes that both distressed firms and early-stage ventures endure periods of negative cash flow but retain potential for recovery. He combines Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model to evaluate distressed firms’ recovery prospects and debt sustainability. A case study on Spirit Airlines illustrates this approach: though its current equity value is negative, projected future cash flows suggest significant potential recovery. Droussiotis concludes that strategic valuation, using trend, peer, and expected analysis, can reveal hidden value in distressed companies, guiding effective investment and restructuring decisions.

Description: The article investigates the reasons behind non-zero financial implications for fully reinsured businesses within the regulatory frameworks of US GAAP Long Duration Targeted Improvements (LDTI) and International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) 17. It helps companies grasp the nuances of these standards, thereby enhancing their risk management strategies, improving regulatory compliance and optimizing their decision-making processes.

Description: Study, discuss and explore the professionalism practice, code of conduct and application of the actuarial profession. Hear from seasoned presenters from mainland China as they cover several issues encountered in daily actuarial working environments through business cases and interactive discussions.

Description: Improve your financial reporting knowledge with this SOA e-course. It will help you understand financial statements and regulatory capital requirements.

Description: In the United States, there has been much industry discussion of the challenges associated with a sustained low interest rate environment, which impacts both the asset and liability sides of the balance sheet in unfavorable ways. The intent of this article is not to focus on these strategic issues. Rather, we attempt to shine a spotlight on some of the modeling challenges that practicing actuaries may experience when incorporating negative interest rates into their models.

Description: Provides an update, as of September 2022, on Financial Reporting Section sponsored research projects in process and those recently completed.

Description: A description of the of FAP design and development process. The release of FAP Module 1 earlier this year marked a significant achievement for the Society of Actuaries' basic education system.