Description: Explore the value and cost of prescription drugs, how they should be defined and measured and the effects various stakeholders in the pharmacy ecosystem can have on these factors in the latest webcast. You'll investigate the impact of coverage, formulary and rebate negotiations and related benefit design. Find out how actuaries can answer questions related to the prescription drug industry, in addition to improving the access, quality and affordability of prescription drugs in the United States. Join us for this webcast and come learn about value-based contract design, negotiations, implementation and administration for prescription drugs.

Description: Actuarial funding of OPEB plans is primarily a public sector phenomenon due to the different regulations and tax laws that impact private sector organizations in the US. OPEB funding started to gain momentum with the implementation of GASB Statement 45 in the mid to late 2000s.

Description: Healthcare risk adjustment methodologies have become increasingly complex, largely due to the belief that complexity enhances accuracy. However, a disconnect exists between how healthcare risk is assessed and how payments are adjusted. This article explores the stark difference between measuring the accuracy of a risk assessment model at a member level, and that of a risk adjustment mechanism at the health plan level. I show that a highly simplified approach that does not use diagnosis codes can have similar accuracy on risk adjusted payments to models that do. These findings suggest that accuracy is not a barrier to developing simpler risk adjustment methodologies, which can improve payment accuracy and reduce the financial incentive for coding diagnoses.

Description: In *From Distress to Distinction*, Chris Droussiotis explores a novel approach to valuing distressed companies using option pricing theory, drawing parallels to the financial challenges faced by startups. With over 30 years in banking and startup advising, he emphasizes that both distressed firms and early-stage ventures endure periods of negative cash flow but retain potential for recovery. He combines Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model to evaluate distressed firms’ recovery prospects and debt sustainability. A case study on Spirit Airlines illustrates this approach: though its current equity value is negative, projected future cash flows suggest significant potential recovery. Droussiotis concludes that strategic valuation, using trend, peer, and expected analysis, can reveal hidden value in distressed companies, guiding effective investment and restructuring decisions.

Description: The article explores a closed-form forecasting method that combines Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA), weighted linear regression, and ridge regression (L2 regularization). The approach addresses two key challenges in time-series forecasting: adapting to nonstationarity and mitigating overfitting due to multicollinearity. EWMA assigns more weight to recent observations, while ridge regression penalizes large coefficients to stabilize estimates. A cross-validation strategy across rolling time windows selects optimal hyperparameters: the EWMA decay factor (α) and the ridge penalty (λ). The method is tested using repeated regressions of stock returns, showing that most hyperparameter combinations outperform ordinary least squares (OLS) under the (λ=1, α=0) setting.

Description: The article discusses the use of the keyword strategy in teaching. The literature with a negative view of keywords is reviewed and responded to by advocating keywords with multiple meanings supplemented with relevant instructional guidance. Numerous examples are presented from the SOA preliminary exams. Additionally, advanced use of keywords to problems not having them are presented.

Description: As an addendum to a July 2022 article, this article restates the formulas then presented for a framework to measure the reinsured portion of a direct loss from capping a net premium ratio or flooring a liability. The article corrects a flaw in one of the original formulas and shows, by example, how the framework can be applied to a specific application of reinsurance accounting.

Description: In July 2007, Mike McLaughlin, FIA, FSA, MAAA, became one of the first individuals to add a new credential from the Society of Actuaries after his name: CERA. Short for Chartered Enterprise Risk Analyst, the CERA is the first new credential from the SOA since it was formed in 1949. While the development of this new international credential was the work of many members over the past few years, McLaughlin was at the helm. From The Actuary Magazine October 2007

Description: Overview of the session “Analytics You Should Know, but Don’t” which took place at the 2007 SOA Annual Meeting in which R, an open source language for statistical computing, was discussed.

Description: This article is aimed to cover the following: 1) Provides an assessment of income volatility under Long Duration Targeted Improvements (LDTI) for several key types of long duration contracts along with select illustrations, and compares against those under current GAAP, 2) Discuss areas where accounting policies or methodologies can influence income volatility, and 3) Show how a company's management reporting can be adapted to help explain income variances under LDTI.