Description: An introductory article describing how Bayesian statistics has evolved over the past 20 years and why it offers the actuarial discipline powerful tools to better understand and manage risk. Compared with traditional (frequentist) and black-box (machine learning) approaches, Bayesian analysis provides explainable models focused on distributions of estimates instad of simply point estimates.

Description: This article is the result of the Leadership & Development book club on Dare Lead. The article talks about major themes in the book and relates them to other podcasts and authors thought on those themes.

Description: The 2024 Dangerous Risks survey shows respondents react to recent increases in "old favorite" risks as technology evolves and the environment moves away from the pandemic.

Description: The article provides a high-level, non-technical, introduction to artificial neural networks (ANNs) and deep learning with an application to risk management. The method relies on typical ANN components such as nodes, activation functions, and optimization through gradient descent.

Description: The Federal funds rate increased by 4.25% in 2022 with further increases in 2023, which have already resulted in a liquidity crisis for a few banks. As the rapid increase of the interest rates pushed the new money rates above the yields of many life insurers’ investment portfolios, insurance companies are facing a dilemma between compressed margins from peer pressure and the concern with liquidity shortfalls and realized capital losses should mass surrenders happen. This paper discussed main emerging risks under rising interest rate environment, and several ways to mitigate these risks.

Description: Joint Risk Management Section chairperson's corner, June 2023

Description: The author discusses how China is poised for dramatic changes in its life insurance industry that will raise both opportunities and challenges. The author notes that China has particularly spectacular growth prospects, and given the nature of the business, the industry will have an almost insatiable appetite for capital. However, In order to accomplish this, China's insurance industry needs to advance its financial management and improve its ability to produce transparent financial information, in a timely and reliable manner. The author compares China’s current position in the life insurance compared to other Asian countries, and describes the steps needed to improve its financial management.

Description: Newly released spring 2019 data added to the Actuaries Climate Index show that more frequent extreme weather and increases in sea level continue to push the index upward. The ACI’s five-year moving average now stands at 1.16, up from 1.12 last quarter.

Description: The Survey of Emerging Risks has been successfully conducted in North America for 15 years, which provides a consistent report by tracking the opinions of risk managers on the emerging topics beyond the current business cycle with strategic plans over decades. For the first time the survey is also being specifically introduced in China and Greater Asia, with the aim of surveying the actuarial and risk management professionals' opinions on emerging risks in the local market. In relation to the Society of Actuaries, Greater Asia is defined as markets that participate in our Greater Asia Committee. These are additional areas outside of mainland China that include markets such as Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam. The survey is sponsored by the Society of Actuaries (SOA) Research Institute and comprises both quantitative and qualitative questions in English and Chinese (Simplified). With a wide range of response options and allowing for anonymous comments, the survey results serve as a platform to share the risk views of local actuaries and risk managers in China and Greater Asia.

Description: The survey incorporated a set of Emerging Risks defined by the World Economic Forum as the basis for several of the questions. The survey also included questions related to current risk management topics.