Description: Abstract: Over the last century, the assumption usually made was that causes of death are independent, although it is well-known that dependencies exist. Recent developments in econometrics allow, through Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), to model multivariate dynamic systems including time dependency between economic variables. Common trends that exist between the variables may then be highlighted, the relation between these variables being represented by a long-run equilibrium relationship. In this work, VECM are developed for causes-of-death mortality. We analyze the five main causes of death across ten major countries representing a diversity of developed economies. The World Health Organization website provides cause-of-death information over about the last 60 years. Our analysis reveals that long-run equilibrium relationships exist between the five main causes of death, improving our understanding of the nature of dependence between these com peting risks over recent years. It also highlights that countries had usually different past experience in regards to cause-of-death mortality trends and thus, applying results from one country to another may be misleading.

Description: This is A Value-Based Longevity Index for Hedging Retirement Income Portfolios abstract authored by Jonathan Ziveyi, Kevin Krahe, Michael Sherris, Andres M Villegas for Session 1A of the January 13-15, 2020 Living to 100 Symposium in Orlando, Florida.

Description: This abstract describes a paper that separates mortality into component parts in order to analyze observed trends over time.

Description: In this issue, we’re pleased to share with our members some recent nice activities and initiatives of AFIR- ERM on the risk management space. Please fi nd useful information in the article below from Michael Sherris, Chairman of AFIR- ERM Section.

Description: This is a presentation from 39th Actuarial Research Conference, 8/5-7/2004, University of Iowa in Iowa City, Iowa. The aim of this paper is to consider economic capital for a multi-line insurer and the fair allocation to lines of business. In addition, this paper also allows for a model with assets, liabilities and insolvency exchange option fairly priced, complete markets and no market frictions.

Description: This is the abstract for the paper on pricing and hedging synthetic CDO tranche spread risks.

Description: This presentation examines the measurement and hedging of synthetic CDO tranche spread risks based on market spread data following the sub-prime crisis. A range of methods proposed for pricing bespoke CDOs are examined to assess their ability to hedge the credit spread risk. The methods assessed are calibrated to the traded CDO index spread and then compared based on the mean absolute pricing errors over a time period including the sub-prime crisis. Standard pricing methods and variations used to price bespoke CDOs generally perform poorly in hedging credit spread risk. Past data can be used to improve the performance of the methods. The results of this analysis also raise concerns with the accuracy of 'mark-to-model' valuations of bespoke CDOs using standard market methods.

Description: This abstract describes a paper that investigates important drivers of retirement age mortality using the U.S. health and retirement study.

Description: This presentation compares continuous-time multi-factor affine cohort mortality models and presents estimation results for an affine multi-factor, multi-cohort mortality model.

Description: Over the last century, the assumption usually made was that causes of death are independent, although it is well-known that dependencies exist. Recent developments in econometrics allow, through Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), to model multivariate dynamic systems including time dependency between economic variables. Common trends that exist between the variables may then be highlighted, the relation between these variables being represented by a long-run equilibrium relationship. In this work, VECM are developed for causes-of-death mortality. We analyze the five main causes of death across ten major countries representing a diversity of developed economies. The World Health Organization website provides cause-of-death information over about the last 60 years. Our analysis reveals that long-run equilibrium relationships exist between the five main causes of death, improving our understanding of the nature of dependence between these com peting risks over recent years. It also highlights that countries had usually different past experience in regards to cause-of-death mortality trends and thus, applying results from one country to another may be misleading.