U.S. Population Research Reports
If you’re looking for research that utilizes U.S. Population Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to produce studies, tools and articles, you’ve come to the right place. The SOA offers research, authored by an individual or a team of authors, for download in just a few clicks. Most reports are in PDF format.
2025
U.S. Population Mortality Observations – Updated with 2022 Experience
March
This report covers the latest emerging trends in U.S. population mortality. The SOA relied upon data furnished by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the U.S. Census Bureau. Observations are based on the CDC’s recent release of 2022 mortality experience, along with prior mortality experience data from 1999 through 2021 and U.S. Census Bureau population estimates for 2020-2022.
2024
U.S. Historical Population Mortality Rates 2000-2022
October
The Society of Actuaries (SOA) is pleased to present historical U.S. population mortality rates by sex and single year of age for calendar years 2000-2022.
2023
U.S. Population Mortality Observations – Updated with 2021 Experience
February
This report covers the latest emerging trends in U.S. population mortality. The SOA relied upon data furnished by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Observations are based on the CDC’s recent release of 2021 mortality experience, along with prior mortality experience data from 1999 through 2020.
2022
2020-2021 Excess Deaths in the U.S. General Population by Age and Sex
August
This is an update of a report published originally in June 2021 comparing total U.S. population mortality to baseline expectations by age and sex. The report now includes U.S. population numbers through August 17, 2022, so the years 2020 and 2021 are now mostly complete.
U.S. Historical Population Mortality Rates 2000-2020
July
The Society of Actuaries (SOA) is pleased to present historical U.S. population mortality rates by gender and single year of age for calendar years 2000-2020.
U.S. Population Mortality Observations – Updated with 2020 Experience
January
This report covers the latest emerging trends in U.S. population mortality. The SOA relied upon data furnished by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Observations are based on the CDC’s recent release of 2020 mortality experience, along with prior mortality experience data from 1999 through 2019.
2021
Analysis of Historical U.S. Population Mortality
September
The Mortality & Longevity Strategic Research Program Steering Committees is pleased to present a new report examining mortality improvement drivers in the U.S. for the period 1959-2016. The study identifies significant U.S. mortality improvement/deterioration trends since 1959 including, but not limited to, those described in the SOA report, Components of Historical Mortality Improvement, using cause-of-death and other relevant data sources to quantify the likely degree of causality.
U.S. Historical Population Mortality Rates 2000-2019
August
The Society of Actuaries (SOA) is pleased to present historical U.S. population mortality rates by gender and single year of age for calendar years 2000-2019.
Interstate Variations in Mortality in the United States, 1959-2018
July
The Mortality & Longevity Strategic Research Program Steering Committees is pleased to present a new report examining mortality differentials by state. Using recently updated data from the United States Mortality Database, this report presents an overview of historical mortality trends in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia for the period 1959-2018.
U.S. Population Mortality Observations, Preview of 2020 Experience
June
The COVID-19 (COVID) pandemic has increased the demand for data and analysis on the impact of COVID on U.S. population mortality. This report is based on 2020 provisional death data released by the CDC. An updated June 2021 report has been added, based on additional 2020 cause of death data from the CDC.
2020 Excess Deaths in the U.S. General Population by Age and Sex, Updated May 2021
May
This document describes an effort to measure the deaths in the US population relative to pre-pandemic expectations. The actual deaths used are as reported by the US Center for Disease Control (CDC) and we consider several different methods for setting the expectations, adjusting for the estimated mix by age, sex, and time of the year (seasonality).
Mortality by Socioeconomic Category in the United States
January
Learn about mortality disparities in the U.S.
U.S. Population Mortality Observations – Updated with 2019 Experience
January
This report covers the latest emerging trends in U.S. population mortality.
2020
U.S. Historical Population Mortality Rates 2000-2018
July
The Society of Actuaries (SOA) is pleased to present historical U.S. population mortality rates by gender and single year of age for calendar years 2000-2018.
U.S. Population Mortality by Race
July
This report covers historical mortality from 1999-2018 by race as categorized by population data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) WONDER database. Mortality for all deaths and six specific causes of death are considered over this period. Additionally, in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has influenced mortality as a whole and this report shows the breakdown of COVID-19 deaths by race.
Projections of COVID-19 Hospitalizations and Deaths, Updated April 24, 2020
April
Since the outbreak began in January, numerous research groups throughout the world have developed models to forecast the number of deaths that could result from COVID-19. Dr. Thomas McAndrew and Dr. Nicholas Reich of the University of Massachusetts Amherst have, on a weekly basis beginning in mid-February, surveyed experts who are separately engaged in efforts to model the outbreak. This brief looks at these models.
US Population Mortality Observations - Updated with 2018 Experience
March
This report covers the latest emerging trends in U.S. population mortality.
2019
U.S. Historical Population Mortality Rates 2000-2017
August
The Society of Actuaries (SOA) is pleased to present historical U.S. population mortality rates by gender and single year of age for calendar years 2000-2017.
U.S. Population Mortality Observations - Preview of 2018 Experience
June
This report provides early insights into the level of U.S. population mortality in 2018.
Mortality and Morbidity Data Sources
March
This report provides information on other mortality and morbidity data sources to consider. Some of these data sources are rich and complex. This report provides an overview of the data sources’ characteristics and a roadmap to delving into their details.
Drivers of U.S. Mortality Improvement Expert Panel Forum Report
January
This report summarizes a daylong Expert Panel Forum discussion, which included experts from inside and outside the insurance/retirement industry, who were invited to participate in a discussion to provide input about drivers of U.S. mortality improvement for the short and long term.
US Population Mortality Observations - Updated with 2017 Experience
January
This report covers the latest emerging trends in U.S. population mortality.
2018
U.S. Motor Vehicle Accident Deaths 1999-2016
November
This report examines historical U.S. motor vehicle accident mortality experience by age, gender, region, and other factors.
U.S. Historical Population Mortality Rates 2000-2016
September
The Society of Actuaries (SOA) is pleased to present historical U.S. population mortality rates by gender and single year of age for calendar years 2000-2016.
Overview of the United States Mortality DataBase
July
This report documents progress on a multi-year project initially funded by the United States National Institutes of Health (through grant #R01-AG010245) with additional support from the Research Expanding Boundaries Pool of the Society of Actuaries. The goal of the project is to foster research on geographic variability in survival within the United States by providing access to standardized historical mortality series for the 4 Census Regions, 9 Census Divisions and 50 states plus the District of Columbia.
Population Mortality Observations - Preview of 2017 Experience
June
This report reviews estimates of 2017 U.S. population mortality experience from the National Center for Health Statistics’ National Vital Statistics System.
Population Mortality Observations - Updated with 2016 Experience
January
This report covers the latest emerging trends in U.S. population mortality.
2017
Modeling and Management of Longevity Risk
November
The Society of Actuaries (SOA), in a joint project with the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) and the Canadian Institute of Actuaries (CIA), is creating research projects and education materials on Modeling and Management of Longevity Risk.
Components of Historical Mortality Improvement
October
This report documents the “Components of Historical Mortality Improvement” project commissioned by the Longevity Advisory Group (LAG) of the Society of Actuaries.
Seasonal Influenza in the United States 2016‐2017
September
Observations and commentary on the 2016‐2017 and recent flu seasons with relation to various mortality and morbidity measures available through the CDC.
US Population Mortality Rate Study - Variation by Age Group, Cause of Death and Region from 2000‐2015
May
This report covers US regional population mortality experience during the period 2000-2015. The Society of Actuaries pursued the research as part its ongoing longevity and mortality research initiatives. The purpose of the research is to produce an overview of the differences and similarities in mortality by age group, time, cause of death and region (geographic and urban-rural) to better aid in the understanding of future expected mortality rates and the management of public programs and policy.
Expanding the Human Mortality Database to include Cause‐of‐Death Information
February
The Human Mortality Database is a unique open‐access collection of detailed mortality and population data for 38 countries with complete and reliable vital registration and census data. This report overviews the development and completion of the HMD data series down to a cause of death level for an initial set of eight populations: Canada, Czech Republic, England and Wales, France, Japan, Norway, Sweden, and the United States.